In the last
debate both candidates sparred over the size the United States Navy. Mitt
Romney was right when he said that our navy is the smallest it has been since
World War One but President Obama was also right when he said that size isn't
the only factor, capabilities matter too. The question then becomes, just how
many ships do we need? So, I thought I'd emerge from hibernation to write up
this blog post, one that has been rattling around in my head for quite a while.
Before I
start let me say that I am NOT giving an opinion on how many ships we need or
what kind of missions we should be doing. I will only be dealing why the navy
has the number of ships it has based on how it functions. Policy and missions
are totally different issues and not something I want to deal with now. With
that disclaimer out there, let's get started.
Right now
the US Navy deploys ships in one of three ways, carrier battle groups,
amphibious assault groups, and single deployments. Most of the navy is deployed
in either carrier battle groups or amphibious assault groups. It is less common
for major warships to be deployed on their own. That just isn't the way they
are designed to be used.
The carrier
battle group is the most capable and diverse force the navy musters. A common
saying is that whenever a crisis erupts around the world, the President asks
where the aircraft carriers are. And whenever a US
carrier pulls up to an area in crisis with it's escort force, it is quite often
the most powerful military force in the region. That fighting ability can scare
our enemies into backing down and reassure our allies that we have their backs.
So our carriers are very useful but we have eleven right now. We have one more
under construction and another one that will be retired very soon. So again
I'll ask, why do we need so many?
The reason
why we have so many carriers and why some want more is based on deployment
needs. A carrier can only be in so many places at once, even a carrier that
runs on nuclear power. So, if there are two areas you want a carrier to be
floating around in, you need two carriers, right? Well, no, not really. Before
I explain let's look at this historically.
Back in the
1980s the navy wanted a carrier battle group always on station in a few areas. One
carrier had to be in the North Atlantic by Norway.
Another had to be in the Mediterranean. It was always
nice to have a carrier in or near the Persian Gulf but
that Mediterranean carrier could always switch back and
forth by running through the Suez Canal. And a carrier
had to be in the Western Pacific to watch the Soviet bases in Kamchatka.
So that makes four deployment areas. But Reagan wanted 15 carriers, why?
Because as
a general rule to have one ship on deployment you need a total of three. One
will be on deployment, one will be working up or heading to the deployment
zone, and one will be in dry-dock getting all fixed up. That might seem a bit extravagant
to some, but it is the best way to get the most out of ships and crew. Let's
look at each step of that deployment cycle starting with the dry-dock.
Warships
are hideously complicated machines. The largest ships in the US Navy, Nimitz
class nuclear powered carriers, weigh about 100,000 tons, are about 1,000 feet
long, and require a crew of 6,000. They have two nuclear reactors, vast fuel
tanks for the planes they operate, miles and miles of electrical cable and
network cables, and all the infrastructure to keep those 6,000 people alive and
happy. All that stuff breaks down constantly and has to be repaired.
Some of it
can be repaired at sea but sometimes bigger stuff breaks or wears out and then
the ship has to be fixed in port. After a six month deployment, a carrier might
be out of service for another six months or so. While in dock, equipment is
also upgraded. It is important to consider the fact that a nuclear powered
carrier has a service life of 50 years. When Enterprise
was launched, Kennedy had just been elected and Nimitz was built
during the Ford administration. Technology has changed considerable since then
and these ships need advance with the times.
In addition
to regular upgrades, carriers get a mid-life servicing. This takes two years or
so because the reactors need to be refueled and that requires basically taking
half the ship apart and putting it back together again. So about once every
five years a carrier will be out of commission for at least two years. I say
once every five years because we build a new carrier about once every five
years. But lets get back to that regular repair.
Each
carrier spends about six months a year swinging at anchor getting fixed up. It
is useless during that stage. Once it is all fixed up it's ready to deploy,
right? Nope. During that downtime the crew has lost their edge. Some of them
have left for other ships and their replacements might have arrived straight
from basic. Some of them have just been promoted and are doing a new job. They
need to take a few weeks or so working up just off-shore so they can remember
their jobs. And then once the ship is done working up it goes straight back to
the dock to fix all the stuff that broke during the workup. That might take
another couple weeks. Now the ship is ready to deploy.
But it
doesn't magically get from San Diego
to the Indian Ocean, the carrier may take a few weeks
getting there. And there, it floats around for three months or so doing carrier
related things. It's planes fly patrols, hunt pirates, watch the Iranians, and
do all sorts of other interesting and exciting things. And then it returns
home, again taking a few weeks. So let's add this all up.
Our carrier
has spent three months on deployment, a month going to and coming back from
deployment, a month or so working up for deployment, and six months at least
fixing all the stuff that broke on deployment. That means eleven months has
passed and it spent about three months on station. That's how I came to that
three ships supports one ship on deployment idea earlier. But there is
something else which is very important to the size of our fleet. So far we have
only looked at carriers.
A carrier
is a huge investment. It must be protected at all times and to protect it we
surround it with cruisers, destroyers, and submarines. Generally there will be
around four to six missile equipped surface ships and one or two attack
submarines to keep enemy subs away. All of those ships have similar deployment
issues. In many cases, they need even more time between deployments because
they are smaller and more specialized.
Now let's
start adding numbers up. As a basic number, I'll go with the idea that we only
have one area of interest to cover. That means we need three carriers with
their own battle groups. So we have three carriers, twelve to eighteen missile
ships, and three to six submarines. That is a minimum number for a navy that is
tasked with watching one area on the planet constantly. Every time you add a
new area, increase the fleet by those numbers. But, carriers and their battle groups
aren't the only kind of way our ships deploy.
The second
method is in amphibious assault groups. To make one of these, you need to take
a couple ships which carry around Marines and all their gear and a couple
missile equipped ships to protect them. Generally there will be seven ships in
a group like this. We have three different kinds of amphibious assault ships
and a group will have one of each. The first is a helicopter assault ship and
it looks like a small aircraft carrier. It carries lots of helicopters, a few
Harriers, a few hovercrafts, and lots of marines with their trucks and tanks.
Next is the landing ship dock with doesn't carry a lot of troops or vehicles,
but does carry a lot of small landing craft to move marines from their ships to
the beach. And finally is the amphibious transport dock, which also carries a
lot of smaller landing craft but can also carry helicopters along with lots of
gear and marines.
In addition
to carrying around a better army than most countries can muster, amphibious
assault ships carry very good hospital facilities and can help with disaster
relief. And the three to one rule applies just as much to these ships as it did
to carriers. So lets do some more math. For that one deployment zone, we need around 50 ships to keep a carrier battle group and an amphibious assault
group on constant deployment. That is the higher number but it shows just what
is required. And don't forget, we send ships off on their own occasionally too.
As for
individual deployments, the vast majority of those are attack submarines and nuclear
ballistic missile submarines. Yes, we still have submarines with lots and lots
of nuclear missiles ready to launch at a moment's notice prowling the oceans.
And attack subs are the ultimate loner in the navy. During the Cold War, attack
subs followed Soviet ships and watched Soviet exercises. So we need a few of
those to add to that 50 number from above.
So what
does this all mean? Do we need three hundred ships? Maybe. But if we want to
keep watch on a few parts of the world constantly, then the number of ships
required balloons dramatically. Remember to keep an area constantly covered by
a carrier group, we need three carriers and almost one hundred other ships. If
we just want to send ships out on a world tour on occasion, then we can make do
with a whole lot less.
-Mike
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